I have concluded by examining the Kobe Bryant crash data that the Sikorsky N72EX transporting Kobe Bryant and his guests took a violent tumble out of the sky inside a narrow 13 second window spanning about a half mile of descent. During that time, the aircraft plummeted at least 750' with increasing downward vertical acceleration typical of an object under mechanical failure approaching terminal velocity or 'free fall'. Given the described experience of the pilot, the pilot's knowledge of the terrain and the reputed 'bulletproof' (link now private and also here) reputation of this particular helicopter, my best guess is that plane was shot down with a shoulder armed missile (e.g. 'manpad') equipped with data link and/or infrared tracking, a proximity fuse and a large field fragmentation warhead. For some examples and information on how shoulder armed missiles are deployed and have been used against civilian aircraft see (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6, 7, 8).
I have little or no domain knowledge for my supposition. I understand that I am looking at ADS data. I understand that ADS data uses "pressure altitude" readings that can need correction for true altitude. Below are some data and graphs from data from Flight Radar 24 on the Kobe Bryant crash. Please make a comment if you see an inaccurate statement. The granular data looks like this in rdata.table:
Google earth kml as jpgs and graphs of data after the break. Click to enlarge the charts and graphs. If viewing with a smart phone, turn your cell phone to horizontal position to read table.
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| The turn down the canyon. Icons marked with 'vspeed' (measured in feet). Click to enlarge the chart. |
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| The last ~13 seconds. Left: 3D modeling non proportional scaling as latitude ~ longitude ~ altitude. Right: Terrain scaled model with vertical speed in in feet. See data below for last ~ 13 seconds. Red line measures .55 miles under a Google Earth Pro ruler. |
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| General crash area from Google Earth Pro. Note what appears to be a dog park and solar farm in the area. |
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| Approx last 20 minutes (measurements) of 'altitude' of the flight. Note the severe climb and drop at end of flight. See elevation topographical charts below. |
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| Last 31 measurements (about 30 seconds of altitude). Note the irregularity of last half of the chart (approx 11 seconds, see table far below) that could appear to be a destabilized flight pattern. Click on chart to enlarge: |
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| Google Earth Pro Altitude. These are absolute elevations above 'sea level' (not height above ground) scaled to feet with one measurement of similar altitude label sometimes hiding others. See scaling configuration at bottom of post. Click on chart to enlarge: |
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| With Google Earth Pro altitude. These are absolute elevations above 'sea level' (not height above ground) scaled to feet with one measurement of similar altitude label sometimes hiding others. See scaling configuration at bottom of post. |
time speed vspeed altitude
89: 17:45:22Z.314 124 -1664 2075
....
100: 17:45:33Z.686 161 -4864 1350
2075 - 1350
[1] 725
fread("N72EX-Granular-Data.csv")[,.(time,speed,vspeed,altitude)][6114:6213][,.(time=substr(time,11,25),speed,vspeed,altitude)]
time speed vspeed altitude
1: 17:43:58Z.850 133 320 1225
2: 17:43:59Z.774 132 320 1225
3: 17:44:01Z.684 130 320 1250
4: 17:44:01Z.836 130 320 1225
5: 17:44:02Z.658 129 320 1250
6: 17:44:02Z.764 130 320 1250
7: 17:44:03Z.340 130 320 1250
8: 17:44:05Z.650 129 384 1250
9: 17:44:06Z.176 129 384 1275
10: 17:44:06Z.680 129 384 1250
11: 17:44:08Z.222 129 128 1275
12: 17:44:08Z.278 128 256 1275
13: 17:44:08Z.580 129 -64 1275
14: 17:44:10Z.604 129 -128 1275
15: 17:44:11Z.682 129 -64 1275
16: 17:44:11Z.716 130 -320 1275
17: 17:44:11Z.760 130 -320 1275
18: 17:44:12Z.314 130 -192 1275
19: 17:44:12Z.542 130 320 1250
20: 17:44:12Z.892 130 -512 1250
21: 17:44:14Z.420 132 -640 1250
22: 17:44:16Z.528 130 320 1225
23: 17:44:17Z.256 133 -512 1225
24: 17:44:17Z.854 133 -512 1225
25: 17:44:18Z.248 134 -512 1200
26: 17:44:20Z.314 135 -512 1200
27: 17:44:20Z.342 135 -512 1200
28: 17:44:21Z.464 135 -512 1175
29: 17:44:22Z.058 133 -512 1175
30: 17:44:22Z.522 135 -512 1175
31: 17:44:24Z.336 135 -448 1175
32: 17:44:25Z.844 135 -640 1150
33: 17:44:25Z.956 135 -640 1150
34: 17:44:27Z.752 136 -128 1125
35: 17:44:28Z.688 136 -128 1125
36: 17:44:30Z.126 136 0 1125
37: 17:44:30Z.746 136 0 1125
38: 17:44:32Z.588 136 448 1150
39: 17:44:32Z.678 136 384 1150
40: 17:44:33Z.186 136 512 1150
41: 17:44:33Z.628 136 448 1150
42: 17:44:34Z.250 136 0 1150
43: 17:44:35Z.650 136 832 1150
44: 17:44:36Z.824 133 1280 1200
45: 17:44:37Z.286 132 1344 1200
46: 17:44:38Z.288 132 1344 1200
47: 17:44:38Z.372 131 1344 1250
48: 17:44:40Z.278 128 1600 1300
49: 17:44:41Z.276 128 1664 1300
50: 17:44:43Z.318 124 1856 1375
51: 17:44:43Z.392 124 1856 1375
52: 17:44:45Z.344 123 1856 1400
53: 17:44:46Z.884 120 1792 1475
54: 17:44:48Z.198 119 1664 1500
55: 17:44:48Z.282 118 1600 1525
56: 17:44:49Z.730 117 1472 1550
57: 17:44:50Z.290 118 1472 1550
58: 17:44:53Z.730 116 1280 1650
59: 17:44:53Z.766 116 1280 1650
60: 17:44:53Z.778 116 1280 1625
61: 17:44:57Z.024 115 1280 1700
62: 17:44:57Z.568 115 1280 1725
63: 17:44:59Z.594 115 1216 1750
64: 17:45:00Z.166 114 1280 1775
65: 17:45:01Z.360 114 1280 1800
66: 17:45:01Z.784 114 1280 1825
67: 17:45:02Z.256 114 1344 1825
68: 17:45:04Z.340 113 1408 1850
69: 17:45:04Z.850 112 1536 1900
70: 17:45:05Z.838 111 1600 1925
71: 17:45:05Z.918 112 1600 1925
72: 17:45:07Z.380 111 1600 1950
73: 17:45:08Z.448 111 1600 1975
74: 17:45:09Z.338 109 1664 2000
75: 17:45:10Z.962 109 1408 2075
76: 17:45:11Z.478 109 1408 2100
77: 17:45:11Z.490 109 1344 2100
78: 17:45:14Z.352 110 768 2125
79: 17:45:14Z.404 110 768 2125
80: 17:45:15Z.830 111 640 2125
81: 17:45:15Z.924 112 320 2125
82: 17:45:17Z.870 114 0 2125
83: 17:45:18Z.300 112 320 2125
84: 17:45:18Z.488 116 -320 2125
85: 17:45:19Z.850 121 -1216 2100
86: 17:45:20Z.840 121 -1216 2100
87: 17:45:21Z.494 122 -1408 2100
88: 17:45:22Z.214 127 -2048 2050
89: 17:45:22Z.314 124 -1664 2075
90: 17:45:24Z.110 124 -1664 1950
91: 17:45:25Z.014 139 -3456 1900
92: 17:45:26Z.048 144 -3712 1850
93: 17:45:28Z.178 141 -3584 1725
94: 17:45:28Z.744 153 -4224 1700
95: 17:45:29Z.286 125 -1856 1700
96: 17:45:31Z.304 159 -4544 1475
97: 17:45:31Z.398 158 -4416 1525
98: 17:45:32Z.622 141 -3584 1350
99: 17:45:33Z.326 159 -4544 1400
100: 17:45:33Z.686 161 -4864 1350
time speed vspeed altitude
Google Earth Pro view looking down the approaching canyon. Click on chart to enlarge:
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| With Google Earth Pro altitude. These are absolute elevations above 'sea level' (not height above ground) scaled to feet with one measurement of similar altitude label sometimes hiding others. See scaling configuration at bottom of post. |
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| Final 13 seconds of the Sikorsky N72EX (call sign) with 'vspeed' in feet. |
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| Scaling factors for altitude data |
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